17P.Iris 路徑曲折三度發展

周子堯@FB · 2018-4-4 17:16

型態轉差，BoM 強度降至一級熱帶氣旋，並預測24小時內轉為熱帶低壓

霧峰追風者 · 2018-4-9 08:50

JTWC 21Z再發佈Low

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 153.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 154.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081701Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DISPLAY A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 081055Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS
PREDOMINANTLY 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITH AN ISOLATED 30 KNOT WIND
DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS) WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK WITH NAVGEM BEING THE
ONLY OUTLIER. NAVGEM FORECASTS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND
DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE RETURNING ON A
SOUTHWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT OF 17P, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

t02436 · 2018-4-10 12:40

先補一張奇葩過去路徑
sh172018.20180409010347.gif

JTWC再度提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 17P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 154.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 153.6E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED FLARING CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER A
DEFINED LLCC. RMNTS 17P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25KTS)
VWS WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AIDED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27-29C) AND ARE
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING IMPROVED THOUGH
STILL WEAK AGREEMENT ON RMNTS 17P TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPGRADE
IN STORM STATUS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT, INCREASED
SURFACE WINDS, AND IMPROVED STORM STRUCTURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Meow · 2018-4-13 10:14

撤編，看看澳洲中午還會不會提到。

Meow · 2018-4-13 10:28

RSMC Nadi編號：2018-03-20T21Z
RSMC Nadi命名：2018-03-23T18Z
TCWC Brisbane發報：2018-03-24T06Z
TCWC Brisbane降TL：2018-03-24T11Z
TCWC Brisbane升C1：2018-04-02T00Z
TCWC Brisbane升C2：2018-04-02T18Z
TCWC Brisbane降C1：2018-04-04T06Z
TCWC Brisbane降TL：2018-04-05T18Z

只有4天半達到熱帶氣旋等級。

周子堯@FB · 2018-4-13 11:03

12/19Z已撤編

Meow · 2018-4-13 12:58

存活確認

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 13 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 16 April 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

The surface circulation of ex-tropical cyclone Iris has continued to weaken in the far northern Coral Sea near Papua New Guinea. It is now rated a very low chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone.

There are no other significant systems in the Coral Sea and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:
Very low
Sunday:
Very low
Monday:
Very low