簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2018-4-14 07:37
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本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2018-4-14 07:40 編輯
JTWC 13/23z評級為Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N
145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 132112Z
91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND POORLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAIR
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). CURRENTLY NAVGEM IS THE ONLY
GLOBAL MODEL THAT INITIALIZES AND INTENSIFIES A CLOSED CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH 90W, WHILE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MORE OF A WAVE
PATTERN TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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