簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2018-5-12 10:31
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本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2018-5-13 09:26 編輯
JTWC首報預測有機會在24小時內短暫升到TS，預測最高風速僅35kt(目前中心半裸)
B. TD 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36. FROM TAU 36 TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW IN FORWARD TRANSLATION WHILE SLOWING TURNING MORE NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY IN A WEAKLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSETTING HIGH VWS, PEAKING OUT AT 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WITH THE 35 KNOT WIND RADII EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. AFTER TAU 36 POINT, VWS STRENGTHENS AND COMES TO DOMINATE THE OUTFLOW, WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW, WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH HWRF BEING THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER, AND COTC BEING THE FAR POLEWARD OUTLIER. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG, WITH HWRF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE COAMPS MODELS AND DECAY SHIPS INDICATE A PEAK BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS. THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//NNNN
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