霧峰追風者

  熱帶低壓  
編號：01 E
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 05 月 08 日 00 時
升格日期　　：2018 年 05 月 11 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 05 月 13 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)：30 kts
海平面最低氣壓：1002 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90E-INVEST.15kts-1002mb-9.0N-119W


以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至30%。

1. A large area of disturbed weather has formed a little more than
one thousand miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally favorable for some development during the next day or
two while the disturbance moves generally toward the west-northwest
and northwest.  After that time, upper-level winds are expected to
become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
11 AM PDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至50%

1. Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
developed in association with the region of disturbed weather
located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. The system is gradually becoming
better organized and environmental conditions appear to be favorable
for some additional development. A tropical depression could form
from this system later today or Wednesday before the disturbance
moves slowly northwestward toward unfavorable upper-level winds
later this week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 11 AM PDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z發佈TCFA，有機會成為東太首旋。

WTPN21 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 120.7W TO 12.8N 124.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081710Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 121.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 118.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 120.6W, APPROXIMATELY
625 NM SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH SIGNIFICANT, CO-LOCATED MID-
LEVEL TURNING. CONVECTION IS LIGHTLY FLARING AS THE STORM APPROACHES
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, YET SHOWING GOOD ORGANIZATION AS IT WRAPS INTO
THE LLCC. VWS IS CURRENTLY LOW (10-15KTS) BUT INCREASES TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK. SSTS ARE WARM (27-
28C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT MAINTAINING A CIRCULATION TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST, BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH GFS
AND NAVGEM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092200Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

取消TCFA，展望降低至30%。

1. Shower activity associated with the broad low pressure area located
about 1250 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday, and
upper-level winds are becoming less favorable for development.
While there is still a chance that a tropical depression could form
tonight or Thursday before stronger upper-level winds become
established over the system, the chances of tropical cyclone
formation continue to diminish.  Another Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by 11 AM PDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

霧峰追風者

升格熱帶低壓，編號01E，中心裸露，不看好命名。

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018
200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during
the past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface
circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical
depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are
2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The
depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind
environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a
short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner.

Since the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain
and appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5
knots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and
not change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a
weak subtropical ridge is anticipated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN