霧峰追風者

  熱帶低壓  
編號： 91 W
名稱： 無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期 ：2018 年 06 月 01 日 21 時
升格熱低日期 ：2018 年 06 月 04 日 14 時
撤編日期　　 ：2018 年 06 月 05 日 20 時
登陸地點　　 ：越南

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：15 m/s ( 30 kt )
海平面最低氣壓： 1006 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
91W-INVEST.15kts-1010mb-10.5N-148.9E


以上資料來自：JMA、颱風論壇整理製作

s6815711

00Z評級提升為Low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.2N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012148Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHERLY. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE WITH THE GENERAL TRAJECTORY OF THE DISTURBANCE,
TRACKING NORTHERLY, BUT DISAGREE ON TIME AND INTENSITY MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

最新底層掃描

TXPQ25 KNES 031003
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B.  03/0830Z

C.  11.9N

D.  144.3E

E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. POSITION BASED ON CSC. GT 0.2 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...RAMIREZ

霧峰追風者

JTWC 評級提升至"Medium"

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 145.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 031810Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C) WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 48-72 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT 91W WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
48HOURS, BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z發佈TCFA，分析到T2.0。

TPPN11 PGTW 040020
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (SW OF GUAM)
B. 04/0000Z
C. 13.06N
D. 140.96E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   VEERKAMP

霧峰追風者

JMA 06Z強度升"熱帶低壓"。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.

ben811018

ＥＣ最新系集



ＪＴＷＣ預測登入海南後大概就差不多了ＸＤ

霧峰追風者

JTWC 取消"TCFA"，預計與90W整合後才有機會發展。

WTPN21 PGTW 050100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040051Z JUN 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 040100)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040100). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 141.3E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 135.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION. A
042254Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM
PROPAGATING WESTWARD AND COMBINING WITH INVEST 90W BEFORE
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1021
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN