霧峰追風者

  熱帶風暴  
編號：05 E
名稱：Daniel

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 06 月 23 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 06 月 25 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 06 月 27 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)：40 kts
海平面最低氣壓：1003 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95E.INVEST.20kts-1010mb-12.0N-116.2W


NHC : 40%

2. A second broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 800
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity,
which has increased slightly in organization.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the disturbance moves toward the north or
north-northeast at about 5 mph over the open eastern North Pacific.
The system is expected to reach cooler waters early next week, which
will limit the potential for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

NHC 12Z展望提升至70%

2. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near an area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, but satellite
wind data indicate that the low's circulation remains somewhat
elongated.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development while the system moves northward over the next day
or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form before the
system reaches colder waters on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

zjk369

熱帶低氣壓05E（五）警告＃01
發佈於24 / 0400Z
TC警告文本
WTPN31 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231321JUN2018//
APMN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 13.9N 115.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 115.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 15.6N 115.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.4N 116.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 18.7N 117.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 19.5N 118.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 20.3N 121.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 20.5N 125.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 20.0N 129.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 115.7W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1131 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 231330).//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

NHC 12Z命名"Daniel"，強度僅上望40kt。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 241441
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The cyclone has continued to maintain a small mass of deep
convection near the center during the past several hours, with the
low-level center under the convection. In addition, recent
microwave overpasses indicate that the system has developed a small
inner core.  Based on this and various satellite intensity estimates
of 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Daniel.

The initial motion is now 350/9.  There is no change in the track
forecast philosophy.  The various dynamical models remain in good
agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a
mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-24 hours, causing the system to
move over cooler water and weaken.  The resulting more shallow
cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is
again an update of the previous track.

The forecast track brings the center of Daniel over sea surface
temperatures below 26C in less than 24 h, and this should cause
weakening even though the storm is in a light shear environment.
Thus, the intensity forecast continues the scenario of the
previous forecast by indicating a little more strengthening,
followed by steady weakening over the cooler water.  The latest
dynamical models are consistent in showing the system dissipating
faster than previously forecast, and the new forecast follows that
trend by showing dissipation after 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.0N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 17.2N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven