霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium，逐漸增強，路徑須留意。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.9N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 657 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 151254Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151211Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
INDICATES A WEAK, DEVELOPING CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE OVER THE LLCC AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TAIWAN / RYUKYU ISLANDS REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

dog327

11w快速西進的趨勢保持不變
等這個過去之後,92W加強整合的狀況應該就會比較明顯

ktf

EC和GFS在導引方面預測差異有點接近但細節上不同就影響很大
就是整合方面認知天差地遠,北側導引高壓接手時間差異
GFS認為很快中心區域建立取得主導,穩定快速增強(北側導引提早接手,環流整合快)

EC認為始終是一個大低壓帶有多中心,所以整合有互璇情形中心不穩定
強度偏弱(北側導引接手慢,中心狹長)

再看個2~3天發展

jrchang5

EC系集50個成員中，目前似乎僅有極少數成員支持其發展。繼續觀察。

ben811018

熱帶擾動９４Ｗ
目前位於菲律賓東方，也是季風環流的東側，隨著１１Ｗ快速西移，週三起將有顯著，甚至迅速發展。

至於接下來會怎麼走？目前變數實在太大，可參考度相當低，所以問會不會影響台灣等於廢話XD

那時麼時候才會比較明朗？就得要等到系統整合完畢、有較明確發展後，才能做判斷，再來確定是否會影響，影響程度有多少。

因此，這幾天請多注意他的一舉一動。

天氣特別提醒
隨著低壓帶逐漸北抬，未來幾天台東、恆春半島、台東、花蓮、宜蘭、屏東非常容易出現雷陣雨，台南、高雄也有短暫雷陣雨的機會，越往東、越往南走，天氣越不穩定。

其他地區維持高溫炎熱，平地多雲到晴，山區午後雷陣雨，室外活動請多補充水分及防曬；偏東風盛行下，台中到台南空氣差。

特別注意，週四之後，南部、宜花東更容易雷陣雨，其他地區的天氣好壞取決於低壓發展情況而定，這部分還有修正空間，有安排室外活動的朋友務必注意。

ken0121

中央氣象局已於今日八點升格熱帶性低氣壓。

周子堯@FB

JTWC 17/10Z發布TCFA；補JMA 17/00Z升熱低(圖)

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N 127.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY
420 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH POCKETS OF PERSISTING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT. A 170746Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTION PERSISTING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST LOCATED
OVER IT. A 170105Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME 15 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING IN, AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE PERIPHERY,
NOT YET WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OR SLIGHTLY EAST BEFORE HEADING
NORTH AND INTENSIFYING. IN THE LATER TAUS THE MODELS SHOW A
NORTHWEST TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

預計短期內還是緩慢向北移，後期的預測依然天女散花
但可以確定的是未來西轉是大方向，角度&移速如何仍然未知...

ericlin6925

這個颱風走的方向讓我想到2012年的天坪颱風，也是北走到快到台灣緯度時轉偏西，侵襲台東和恆春半島，但它雲系特性讓我想到2012的蘇拉颱風，也是季風低壓大塊頭的颱風。