(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.2N 127.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY
102 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141235Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED PERSISTENT
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A 141158Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NO LONGER IN AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OR INTENSITY
OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH SOME SOLUTIONS TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE INTENSIFYING AND HEADING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
STRAIGHT OF TAIWAN, AND OTHERS TAKING IT TO THE NORTH BEFORE
NORTHWEST AND INTERACTING WITH TS 19W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.2N 127.6E TO 30.3N 126.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.7N 127.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.8N 127.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 127.5E, APPROXIMATELY
42 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A RECENT 142115Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. OBSERVATIONS ON OKINAWA REPORTED WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS AND
PRESSURE AROUND 998 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, SOME
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THEN WEST
WHILE DEVELOPING I. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
152200Z.//
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