簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2018-9-5 22:43
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評級提升至Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.3N 133.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY
353 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A PARTIAL 051004Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC AND A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS LESSENED (5 TO 10 KNOTS), ALLOWING THE
LLCC TO BEGIN TO TUCK UNDER THE CONVECTION. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
GOOD BUT THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW 98W TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MINOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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