(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2S 155.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 285
NM NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232023Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
BROAD BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN
THE VICINITY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BETWEEN TAUS 48-60 WITH A GRADUAL
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
WTPS21 PGTW 260130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 157.8E TO 11.9S 161.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2S 158.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
9.3S, 159.2E, APPROXIMATELY 96NM WEST OF HONIARA, GUADALCANAL.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251958Z 91GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 252321Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY
TRACK TRAJECTORY. DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270130Z.//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Sep 261142 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 160.1E
AT 260900 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD01F SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IMPROVED MARKEDLY. CONVECTION
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH TOPS COOLING. SYSTEM LIES TO THE
WEST OF THE UPPER OUTFLOW CENTRE UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE SHEAR. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SLOWLY DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT INITIALLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST THAN WEST.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED 0.3/0.4 WRAP YIELDS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
STT: D0.5/06HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 262100 UTC 10.8S 161.2E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270900 UTC 11.8S 161.4E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 272100 UTC 12.6S 161.1E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280900 UTC 13.2S 160.3E MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 261400 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LIUA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 161.4E AT
261800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IMPROVED MARKEDLY WITH PRIMARY BAND
TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER OUTFLOW CENTRE WITH LOW SHEAR. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM FURTHER AND MOVING
IT INITIALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THAN WEST.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED 0.6/0.65 WRAP YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 11.0S 161.9E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 11.9S 161.7E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 12.6S 161.0E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 13.1S 159.9E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LIUA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
270200 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Sep 270757 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LIUA CATEGORY 1 CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
162.5E AT 270600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN N SEMI CIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN S SEMI
CIRCLE.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE LLCC WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING
IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH GOOD POLEWARD. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
LIUA IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED THE
THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. MET=3.0
AND PT=2.5. THUS, YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITHOUT MUCH INTENSIFICATION
THEN WESTWARDS WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 12.3S 162.4E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 12.9S 161.5E MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 13.2S 160.1E MOV WSW AT 06KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 290600 UTC 13.3S 158.2E MOV W AT 08KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LIUA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
271400 UTC.
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