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霧峰追風者|2018-10-7 00:26
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JTWC 發布TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 060830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 67.7E TO 13.2N 61.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 66.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
70.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 66.9E, APPROXIMATELY 822 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH ADEQUATE UL
DIVERGENCE ENABLED BY FORMATIVE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. VWS IS LOW-
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH HIGHER VALUES TO
THE WEST. DESPITE THESE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES, VERTICAL ALIGNMENT
BETWEEN THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS REMAINS GOOD. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE ARABIAN SEA
AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070830Z.//
NNNN 
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