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霧峰追風者|2018-10-8 12:48
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JTWC 02Z評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4N 91.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 90.4E, APPROXIMATELY 577 NM
SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 071534Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW BROAD AREAS OF FLARING
CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. A 071536Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS TROUGHING WITH WEAK WINDS AROUND THE CENTER AND 15-20
KT WIND BARBS FURTHER FROM THE TROUGH AXIS. VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM. A WEAK ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND IS ENABLING WEAK UL DIVERGENCE AND SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. SSTS ARE WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT SHOW DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND
TIMING. GFS AND JGSM PREDICT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE UKMO,
NAVGEM, AND ECMWF SHOW DEVELOPMENT, WITH ECMWF PREDICTING
DEVELOPMENT IN SEVERAL DAYS, AND NAVGEM PREDICTING A QUICKER
TIMELINE TO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 
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