周子堯@FB

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：22 E
擾動編號日期：2018 年 10 月 13 日 19 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
98E.INVEST.25kts-1007mb-16.2N-101.2W


  NHC:60%  

1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 80 miles south of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is still producing a small but concentrated
area of showers and thunderstorms near and just west of the center.
Upper-level winds are expected to become gradually more favorable
for development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low
moves slowly westward to west-northwestward close to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains are
possible along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima during the next several days, and interests in
those areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to
products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

周子堯@FB

JTWC 03Z發布TCFA，數值看好發展

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5N 101.8W, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM SOUTH OF MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD MID-LEVEL
TURNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. A 141800Z 89GHZ
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE ON A WESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

周子堯@FB

NHC評級提升至70%/80%---High

1. A small low pressure system is located about 200 miles south-
southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has changed little in organization overnight due to
moderate winds aloft.  However, upper-level winds are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development of this disturbance
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by early this week while the low moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward just offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima
during the next few days, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by
the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

t02436

15Z升格22E，暫時上望80節。

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 141500
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

A small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the
past couple of days has finally acquired enough organized convection
to be designated a tropical depression, which is located less than
100 nmi off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Cloud tops near the
center have recently been as cold as -90C, and satellite intensity
estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on an earlier OSCAT/ScatSat
scatterometer pass that had a few uncontaminated wind vectors
located just north of a well-defined low-level circulation center,
which is similar to yesterday's ASCAT passes.

The initial motion estimate is 295/05 kt. The small cyclone is
forecast by the global and regional models to move only slowly
westward to southwestward at less than 5 kt for the new few days due
to the system being caught in a break in the subtropical ridge that
extends from central Mexico southwestward into the eastern Pacific.
By days 4 and 5, the ridge is forecast to build westward to the
north of the system, acting to nudge the cyclone westward at a
slightly faster forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies between
the consensus models TVCE and HCCA.

The environment is expected to be somewhat conducive for gradual
strengthening of the cyclone throughout the forecast period. The
statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM aren't overly enthused
with intensifying the system, but that is mainly due to the high
shear values calculated from the very poleward TABM beta-advection
model, which recurves the cyclone into strong mid-latitude flow on
days 4 and 5. In contrast, the HWRF model keeps the system farther
south and gradually develops the cyclone into a hurricane by 72 h,
and then continues with slight strengthening beyond that time. Given
that the shear is expected to only be around 10 kt from an easterly
to southeasterly direction and water temperatures near 30 deg C
beneath the small cyclone, some gradual strengthening appears to be
plausible with only some slight land interaction being the primary
modulating factor until the system moves farther away from Mexico in
about 72 h.

Based on the small size of the circulation and its projected motion
away from Mexico, tropical storm warnings and watches are not
required at this time. However, only a slight deviation to the right
of the forecast track would bring stronger winds closer to the
coast, which would require the issuance of a tropical storm warning.
Regardless, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the
coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
flash flooding will be a possibility in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 17.0N 102.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 17.2N 103.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 17.2N 103.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 17.0N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 16.6N 103.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  17/1200Z 16.3N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  18/1200Z 16.5N 105.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 16.9N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

t02436

09Z命名Tara，大幅調低預測強度。

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 150852
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved
somewhat overnight, with convection continuing to burst over the
western and northwestern portions of the circulation.  The center
is slightly more embedded within the southeastern portion of the
cold cloud tops, but easterly shear continues to restrict
convection over the eastern portion of the system.  A couple of
ASCAT passes around 0400 UTC were helpful in locating the center of
the cyclone and both indicated peak winds of 25 to 30 kt to the
west of the center.  Dvorak classifications at 0600 UTC were
T2.5 (35 kt) from both SAB and TAFB, and given the increase in
organization, the system has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical
storm. The nineteenth named storm of the 2018 eastern North Pacific
hurricane season.

Recent microwave imagery and the ASCAT data show that Tara has not
moved much, and the initial motion estimate is stationary for
this advisory.  Although the tropical storm is located within an
area of weak steering currents and little overall motion is
expected during the next couple of days, the track guidance has
become much more divergent this cycle.  The GFS and UKMET models
have trended northward and now bring Tara near the southwestern
coast of Mexico within the next day or so.  On the other hand, the
ECMWF takes Tara southeastward and southward away from the coast.
The various consensus aids have trended northward in the
short-term, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged in that
direction through 36 hours, but it is not as far north as the GFS,
GFS ensemble mean, and UKMET models.  After 48 hours, a ridge is
forecast to build westward across central Mexico, which should cause
Tara to turn west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed.
Given the spread in the guidance and its recent trends, the track
forecast is of low confidence.

The intensity forecast is also very challenging and of low
confidence this morning. Tara is expected to remain under the
influence of easterly shear during the next day or two.  The shear,
however, is not expected to be strong enough to prevent gradual
strengthening.  After that time, the intensity forecast depends on
how close to the coast the cyclone moves.  If Tara gets too close to
southwestern Mexico, the small cyclone is likely to weaken.  If it
stays offshore, however, the shear is forecast to decrease which
should allow for additional strengthening.  Since the NHC track
forecast keeps Tara offshore, it calls for gradual strengthening
through 72 hours, but it is not as aggressive as before since most
of the guidance is lower than before.  Increasing southwesterly
shear by days 4 and 5 should lead to weakening, and although the NHC
forecast keeps Tara a tropical storm trough the period, most of the
global models weaken and dissipate the system by the end of the
week.

Due to the uncertainties in the track forecast, the government of
Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast
of southwest Mexico.  Regardless of how close Tara tracks to
southwestern Mexico, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along
the coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion,
and life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 17.5N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  15/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  16/0600Z 17.9N 104.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  16/1800Z 17.9N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  17/0600Z 18.0N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  18/0600Z 18.3N 106.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  19/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

t02436

03Z發出FW，系統巔峰55節、995百帕。

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Remnants Of Tara Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Data from several recent microwave overpasses, last-light visible
imagery, and surface observations from Mexico indicate that Tara no
longer has a well-defined surface center. The mid-level center of
the former tropical cyclone appeared to move inland earlier this
evening, though it is unclear whether the surface center made it
that far. Regardless, the high terrain of Mexico has caused the
surface circulation to open into a trough of low pressure and
dissipate. This is the last NHC advisory on Tara. Although the
remnant trough will likely produce intermittent convection near the
coast of Mexico tonight, continued close proximity to land should
prevent it from reorganizing into a tropical cyclone, and all of the
global models indicate that the remnants will gradual weaken over
the next 12 hours or so.

Although Tara is no longer a tropical depression, its remnants
could still cause heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 20.0N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TARA
12H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN