0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：23 E
擾動編號日期：2018 年 10 月 18 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
90E.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.12.5N.91W


  NHC:10%  

2. Another trough of low pressure has developed within a large area of
disturbed weather that extends from Central America westward to
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
westward, near the coast of southern Mexico. Additional information
on the broad area of disturbed weather that extends from Central
America to south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

t02436

NHC:70%

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
centered less than 100 miles off the coast of Guatemala continue to
show signs of organization, and it is possible that a tropical
depression could be forming.  If this trend continues, then
advisories could be initiated on this system later today.  This
disturbance is forecast to move generally westward near the coast of
southern Mexico, and interests in that area should monitor the
progress of the low during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

zjk369

Tropical Depression TWENTY-THR
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 19, 2018:
Location: 13.2°N 91.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt  Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 60 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM

熱帶低氣壓23E（二十三）警告＃01
發佈於19 / 1600Z

TC警告文字


WTPN32 PHNC 191600MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//RMKS/1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23E (TWENTY-THREE) WARNING NR 001       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---   WARNING POSITION:   191200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 91.8W     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 91.8W    ---   FORECASTS:   12 HRS, VALID AT:   200000Z --- 13.7N 93.2W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS    ---   24 HRS, VALID AT:   201200Z --- 13.5N 94.2W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS    ---   36 HRS, VALID AT:   210000Z --- 13.3N 94.9W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS    ---   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:   48 HRS, VALID AT:   211200Z --- 13.3N 96.1W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS    ---   72 HRS, VALID AT:   221200Z --- 13.8N 99.5W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS    ---   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:    ---   96 HRS, VALID AT:   231200Z --- 16.0N 103.0W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS    ---   120 HRS, VALID AT:   241200Z --- 19.0N 105.5W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---REMARKS:191600Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 92.3W.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23E (TWENTY-THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1813NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.//NNNN

zjk369

熱帶風暴23E（Vincente）警告＃02
發佈於19 / 2200Z
TC警告文字
WTPN32 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VINCENTE) WARNING NR 002   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23E
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 92.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 92.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 13.6N 93.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 13.3N 94.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 12.9N 95.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 12.7N 96.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 13.7N 99.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 16.5N 103.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 20.0N 106.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 92.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VINCENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1801 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND
202200Z.//NNNN

t02436

養分全被Willa奪走，現在成為外圍環流的一小部分，09Z降格TD，即將登陸。

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230838
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Cells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near
Vicente's center, but overall the convective organization has
continued to deteriorate.  Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed
maximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of
the small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt.

WindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a
little to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial
motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt.  This motion
should continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's
circulation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico,
and the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the
Mexican state of Michoacan later today.  Once inland, the tiny
circulation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous
terrain.  A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for
continuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood
Vicente will have dissipated by that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg