周子堯@FB

JTWC 17/22Z再度發布TCFA，目前分析已到T3.0。徘徊多日，終再次獲得升格

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 87.1E TO 13.9S 79.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 172100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 86.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 04S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 92.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 86.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 730 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 171542Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04S ARE
IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE (26 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC
04S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP IN THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

JTWC及MFR兩大機構都已重新升格，12Z皆評價50節。

ZCZC 493
WTIO30 FMEE 181259 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  3  (BOUCHRA)
2.A POSITION 2018/11/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 83.6 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/19 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/19 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/20 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/20 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/21 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/21 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/22 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/23 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
NNNN