1901 帕布史上最早一號颱風及北印氣旋風暴

老農民版夜神月 · 2018-12-28 08:37

  輕度颱風  ｜  氣旋風暴
編號： 1901 ( 36 W｜BOB 01 )
名稱：帕布 ( Pabuk )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2018 年 12 月 28 日 08 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 12 月 31 日 14 時
JTWC升格日期: 2018 年 12 月 31 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 01 月 01 日 14 時
　　　　　　 2019 年 01 月 05 日 02 時 - IMD 接續發報
撤編日期　　：2019 年 01 月 09 日 01 時
登陸地點　　：泰國洛坤府

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：23 m/s ( 9 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：23 m/s ( 45 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：50 kts ( TS )
印度氣象局  (IMD) ：45 kts ( CS )
海平面最低氣壓： 990 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　： 080 公里
十級風半徑　　： 000 公里

  討論帖圖片
97W INVEST 9.0N 112.0E 15kts 1004mb

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、IMD、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月 · 2018-12-30 13:20

本帖最後由老農民版夜神月於 2018-12-30 13:25 編輯

JTWC 97W LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.6N
114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300133Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY BEFORE HEADING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING TO THE SOUTH OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436 · 2018-12-30 13:42

馬上再提升到Medium

霧峰追風者 · 2018-12-31 04:33

JTWC 18Z發布TCFA。

WTPN21 PGTW 302030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 115.5E TO 7.3N 107.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 114.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 113.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 215
NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 301417Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. A 301310Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED SHAPE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND SHOWS PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND
20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY BUT NOT YET WRAPPING IN. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD
DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TRACKING WEST AFTER A SHORT PERIOD
OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AND WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT PASSES SOUTH
OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312030Z.//
NNNN

20181230.2000.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.8.4N.114.9E.100pc.jpg

jrchang5 · 2018-12-31 16:29

本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2018-12-31 16:30 編輯

JMA於12310715Z發布GW。

熱帯低気圧
平成30年12月31日16時15分発表

<31日15時の実況>
大きさ       -
強さ       -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域       南シナ海
中心位置       北緯 7度50分(7.8度)
東経 112度25分(112.4度)
進行方向、速さ       西ゆっくり
中心気圧       1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速       15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速       23m/s(45kt)

<01日15時の予報>
強さ       -
存在地域       南シナ海
予報円の中心       北緯 7度35分(7.6度)
東経 110度00分(110.0度)
進行方向、速さ       西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧       998hPa
中心付近の最大風速       18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速       25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径       200km(110NM)

霧峰追風者 · 2018-12-31 16:38

JTWC 06Z升格36W，趨向泰國灣。

WTPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302021ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 8.5N 112.6E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 7.6N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 7.1N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 7.0N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 7.0N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 8.0N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 10.1N 100.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 11.6N 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 8.3N 112.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND
010900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 302030).//
NNNN

20181231.0800.himawari-8.vis.36W.THIRTYSIX.25kts.1003mb.8.5N.112.6E.100pc.jpg

jrchang5 · 2018-12-31 16:38

本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2018-12-31 17:28 編輯

JTWC亦隨即升格為TD36W。目前所處環境垂直風切降低，低層中心裸露的情況有機會改善，就看最後能否順利發展成2019年西太首颱帕布。

WTPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302021ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 8.5N 112.6E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 7.6N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 7.1N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 7.0N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 7.0N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 8.0N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 10.1N 100.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 11.6N 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 8.3N 112.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND
010900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 302030).//
NNNN

霧峰追風者 · 2019-1-1 14:18

分析2.0有機會命名。

currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 2
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 2
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber: 1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 2
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened: 1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 2
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber: 2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 2
finalTNumberType: 2