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mark5823072|2011-7-11 14:09
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90W-TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 158.4E TO 19.6N 152.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 157.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102226Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. CENTRAL CONVECTION IS CYCLIC AND HAS NOT PERSISTED OVER
THE LLCC DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 102221Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (>20 KNOTS) EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL
TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120600Z.//
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