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13S.Gelena 強度曾達強烈熱帶氣旋

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-2-9 17:35 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-2-9 17:44 編輯

JTWC判定09/06Z升格為四級颶風,近中心最大風速達115kts。
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 58.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 58.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 19.2S 61.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 20.5S 63.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 21.8S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 22.9S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 24.1S 71.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 23.9S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 24.2S 77.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115
KTS). TC 13S IS TAPPING INTO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SST
VALUES (29-30C) ARE FUELING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN
EXPECTED PEAK AT 130 KTS AT TAU 12. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT AFTERWARDS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND
NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LEAVES TC 13S BEHIND.
AFTER TAU 72, ECMWF IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER, WHILE NAVGEM AND GFS
BRING THE TRACK SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS; HOWEVER, ALL
MODELS AGREE ON A DUE EASTWARD TRACK AND SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS ONLY
150 NM. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MESOSCALE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IN THE NEAR TERM BUT STILL SHOWS
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, COAMPS-NAVGEM AND
HWRF MAINTAIN SYSTEM INTENSITY ABOVE 65 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH VWS WILL REMAIN HIGH, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE
LIMITED BY UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BE TRACKING INTO DRIER AIR. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

sh1319.gif 20190209.0830.msg1.x.vis1km_high.13SGELENA.115kts-937mb-179S-588E.100pc.jpg 490BD31F-35F0-4F3A-AF5D-8BABA2B8317B-2260-000000D2F8E72A6D.gif
MFR亦認定此強烈熱帶氣旋於09/06Z近中心最大風速達105kts。
ZCZC 622
WTIO30 FMEE 090641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION 2019/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 58.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/09 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/10 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/10 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/02/11 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/11 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/02/12 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/13 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/02/14 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+, CI=6.0+
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CYCLONE GELENA HEADING TOWARDS RODRIGUES !
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF GELENA HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE WITH A WARMING EYE AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED AT 105 KT BASED ON LATEST DVORAK ANALYSIS.
SHORTLY BEFORE 06 UTC, THE RAW DT NUMBERS ARE NOW AT 6.5.
GELENA IS NOW ACCELERATING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND GELENA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO RACE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. THE DEEP UPPER-TO-MID LEVELS
TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST ARE STILL STEERING THE
CYCLONE. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FUNNELING THE TRACK AND
PROVIDE GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FROM MONDAY THERE IS A
LOT MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. THE CURRENT TRACK LIES MORE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AT
THE INITIAL STAGE AND THEN IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CURRENT RAPID MOTION OF GELENA ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE HARMFUL
EFFECTS OF OF AN INCREASE OF THE SHEAR AT PRESENT TIME. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TREND, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY BEFORE A
WEAKENING TREND THAT SHOULD START LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
ON THIS TRACK, GELENA IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE OR OVER
RODRIGUES ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS A VERY
SERIOUS SITUATION AND THE INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GELENA THROUGH THE NEXT WARNINGS AND
PRODUCTS FROM MMS. DYNAMICAL FETCH SHOULD TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS SEA LEVEL RISING THAT COULD REACH 2 METERS
OVER SOME EXPOSED AREAS.=
NNNN

SWI_20182019 (1).png


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jrchang5|2019-2-10 11:00 | 顯示全部樓層
09/12Z強度達到巔峰,近中心最大風速MFR判定110kts,JTWC則判定120kts。目前正逐漸南下減弱中。
WTIO31 FMEE 091317
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 60.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
24H: 10/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
36H: 11/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 11/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 12/02/2019 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
72H: 12/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2019 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE
COMBLANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015
WTXS32 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 60.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 60.4E


sh132019.19020900.gif 20190209.1200.msg1.x.vis1km.13SGELENA.120kts-933mb-187S-604E.100pc.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2019-2-10 11:15 | 顯示全部樓層
巔峰已過,JTWC,MFR先後在18Z,00Z判定開始減弱,並認為此系統將開始逐漸減弱直至消亡
WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016     
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 61.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 61.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 20.6S 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 21.8S 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 22.9S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 23.8S 69.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 24.2S 72.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 24.2S 74.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 24.9S 78.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
FKIO20 FMEE 100008
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190210/0008Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GELENA
ADVISORY NR: 2019/16
OBS PSN: 10/0000Z S2015 E06315
CB: WI 200
NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: ESE 16KT
C: 946HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 10/0600Z S2046 E06411
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 10/1200Z S2119 E06507
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 10/1800Z S2155 E06603
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 11/0000Z S2231 E06657
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190210/0600Z=

WTIO30 FMEE 100026
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/9/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION 2019/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 63.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/02/11 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/02/11 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/12 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=6.0

未命名12.png 未命名13.png
未命名14.png 未命名1579_105061_8504bfa65ce448e.png
未命名1679_105061_a6730f4b27d702e.jpg 未命名1779_105061_63e263ebf555547.jpg


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霧峰追風者|2019-2-10 15:41 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 06Z強度減弱至"熱帶氣旋"中心風速85KT,JTWC 06Z減弱至C2 ( 95kts ),短時間內將中緯東行。
WTIO31 FMEE 100623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/9/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 64.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 2.0/18 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
24H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 11/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
48H: 12/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
60H: 12/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
72H: 13/02/2019 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5-;CI=5.0+
LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE A RELEVE DES RAFALES MAXIMUM
DE 165KM/H ET UNE PRESSION ATMOSPHERIQUE MINIMALE DE 993 HPA SUR LA
STATION DE POINTE CANON A L'ILE RODRIGUES. A 0200Z, LA BOUEE OMM NUM
5601527 A RELEVE UNE PRESSION DE 981HPA A ENVIRON 22MN DU CENTRE DE
GELENA.
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL N'EST PAS
REAPPARUE SUR LES IMAGES IR, SEUL UN POINT CHAUD EST VISIBLE DE FACON
INTERMITTENTE. CEPENDANT, UN OEIL DECHIQUETE EST ENCORE PRESENT SUR
L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 89GHZ GMI DE 0106Z MONTRE UN
ANNEAU DE CONVECTION CENTRAL OUVERT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET
UNE SECONDE BANDE S'ENROULANT AUTOUR DU COEUR PAR L'OUEST. CELA
SEMBLE SUGGERER QU'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL A
DEBUTE MAIS QUE LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST L'A
POSSIBLEMENT INTERROMPU. POUR TENIR COMPTE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LIE A
CE DEBUT D'ERC, LE CI DE DVORAK N'A ETE GARDE QUE DE .5 AU DESSUS DU T
FINAL.
LE DEPLACEMENT DE GELENA RESTE PILOTE PAR LE PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE
A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. DEMAIN, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU TALWEG, GELENA DEVRAIT RALENTIR PROGRESSIVEMENT.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU EVOLUER A L'ARRIERE DU
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DANS UN FLUX D'OUEST ZONAL. LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT
ALORS SE REDRESSER VERS L'EST VOIRE MÊME TEMPORAIREMENT VERS
L'EST-NORD-EST AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE DE MARDI. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DE L'EPS MONTRENT UNE AUGMENTATION DE
L'INCERTITUDE A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, UNE FOIS LE VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST
EFFECTUE.
DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT PREVU DE GELENA, LES EFFETS
DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIENT ETRE PLUS MARQUÉS ET DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT. MAIS LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENCORE TIRER PARTIE DE LA
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POUR CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE
JUSQU'A LUNDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE MARDI, A L'ARRIÈRE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DIMINUE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR
PLUS RAPIDEMENT. EN ALTITUDE, LES VENTS D'OUEST DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE AU NORD DU JET SUBTROPICAL NE LAISSENT PAS DE POSSIBILITE DE
REINTENSIFICATION.
SWI_20182019 (3).png 20190210.0630.msg1.x.vis1km_high.13SGELENA.95kts-952mb-211S-644E.100pc.jpg 20190210.0630.msg1.ir.BD.13SGELENA.95kts-952mb.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2019-2-11 17:06 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-2-11 17:13 編輯

1106Z,JTWC將其降格為TS,將持續減弱
sh132019.20190211075326.gif 79_101175_ade7fea0457f577.jpg
13S2.gif
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老農民版夜神月|2019-2-12 10:22 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-2-12 10:45 編輯

MFR判定降格強烈熱帶風暴
FKIO20 FMEE 120013
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190212/0013Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GELENA
ADVISORY NR: 2019/24
OBS PSN: 12/0000Z S2530 E07224
CB: WI 100NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL450
MOV: ESE 11KT
C: 983HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 12/0600Z S2540 E07309
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 58KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 12/1200Z S2545 E07350
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 12/1800Z S2540 E07425
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 53KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 13/0000Z S2531 E07458
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190212/0600Z=

WTIO30 FMEE 120023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/9/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION 2019/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 72.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/12 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/13 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/13 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2019/02/14 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2019/02/14 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2019/02/15 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/17 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 94.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0-;CI=4.0-

102045e00q5qy7pzm5mzzs.png


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t02436 + 10

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-13 22:10 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 12Z強度減弱為中度熱帶風暴,逐漸轉化溫氣。
WTIO31 FMEE 131217
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.8 S / 77.5 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: NO: 70
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0- ;CI=3.5-
SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
RESTE LOCALISEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 37 GHZ
DE 1032Z MONTRE UNE LEGERE DEGRADATION DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A ÉTÉ DÉGRADEE AU STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.
LE SYSTEME COMMENCE A ACCELERER VERS L'EST AU SEIN D'UN FLUX D'OUEST
PRESENT A TOUS NIVEAUX. CETTE TENDANCE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24/36H. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, GELENA SE RETROUVE DE
NOUVEAU A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ARRIVANT DEPUIS
L'OUEST ET SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, CE QUI DEVRAIT LE FAIRE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST. LES
MODELES RESTENT GLOBALEMENT EN BON ACCORD QUANT AU TIMING ET LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.
LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST EST PREVU SE
RENFORCER AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET DANS LE SUD DU
SYSTEME. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EST PREVU
SE POURSUIVRE. GELENA DEVRAIT ENSUITE COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES JEUDI EN INTERRAGISSANT AVEC LE JET
SUBTROPICAL ET LA ZONE BAROCLINE ASSOCIÉE.
CE BULLETIN A ETE REALISE EN COLLABORATION AVEC RIVO RANRIANARISON DU
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR ET ALLY MUSSA DU TANZANIA
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.
SWI_20182019 (4).png 20190212.1900.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.13SGELENA.50kts-994mb-255S-751E.100pc.jpg rgb-animated (5).gif

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老農民版夜神月|2019-2-15 11:01 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-2-15 19:58 編輯

MFR判定已為後熱帶低壓(POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION) 將繼續減弱並完成轉化,目前中心已完全裸露

WTIO30 FMEE 150020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/9/20182019
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GELENA)
2.A POSITION 2019/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3 S / 88.9 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SW: 70 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/15 12 UTC: 31.2 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/02/16 00 UTC: 33.7 S / 91.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION

36H: 2019/02/16 12 UTC: 35.6 S / 94.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/02/17 00 UTC: 35.9 S / 97.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

79_105061_e8b03580e0b9a0c.png

13S.gif 20190215.0106.f17.ir.olsircomp.13S.GELENA.x.jpg
vis0-lalo.gif 20190215.0220.himawari-8.ir.13S.GELENA.40kts.1000mb.29.3S.88.8E.100pc.jpg

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