TPPN10 PGTW 010923
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (WUTIP)
B. 01/0850Z
C. 20.18N
D. 134.42E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 134.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 134.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.9N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.8N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 134.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A SMALL AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 150NM TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 281229Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH SWATHS OF 20 KT WINDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND A
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KTS). STRONG (40-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DRY, COLD
AIR, AND WESTERLIES ALOFT HAVE CAUSED TD 02W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER
THE LAST 30 HOURS TO BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD. CONTINUED
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THE LLCC TO BECOME
MORE DISORGANIZED AND DISINTEGRATE ENTIRELY. TD 02W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
TD 02W. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN
TPPN10 PGTW 012127
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (WUTIP)
B. 01/2100Z
C. 19.36N
D. 134.12E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS
