引述自老J
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WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
505 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL LLCC IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT AREA CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-
ESTABLISHED AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS IMPROVING. THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING ON THIS SYSTEM AND SETS
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE AFORE-
MENTIONED STEERING RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS - LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - ALONG THE TRACK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AT ABOVE NORMAL
RATE AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FURTHER IMPROVE, PEAKING AT 90 KTS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THAT TIMEFRAME, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK ON A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
VERY LIMITED AND IN POOR AGREEMENT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AND ON MODEL FIELDS. //
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1.11W正快速增強
2.LLCC附近風切5-10kts
3.大氣環境牽引11W沿著副高脊線北上
4.預測顛峰風速到90kts(+72時)
