megi

ben811018 發表於 2019-8-4 22:55
老J最新一報
風圈很大！

而且風圈較大的角落正好會通過台灣北部

以往走這路徑的颱風，北部影響都不會很大，除非是颱風中心非常靠近北部陸地，或者有登陸

不過這颱風厚實的雲雨帶位於西南方，所以即便沒有靠很近仍然有些風雨，尤其是南部在颱風逐漸北上以後更要注意後面的西南氣流帶來的影響

jrchang5

EC 04/12Z數值預報決定性路徑大幅西修，與各機構預測路徑歧異，且系集分散，不確定性仍高。

ktf

利奇馬被東側的95W干擾中,95W的輻散高層風場帶給利奇馬負面影響
現在LLCC外露結構不對稱

這樣一來確實可能暫時會被拖住強度大幅暴增的機會
不過這樣一來,能量分散,風場就會範圍更大

ericlin6925

ktf 發表於 2019-8-5 09:24
利奇馬被東側的95W干擾中,95W的輻散高層風場帶給利奇馬負面影響
現在LLCC外露結構不對稱

近年來台灣運氣還不錯，颱風不是閃避去，就是來也因為種種因素造成強度不是很強(如蘇利蘇迪勒瑪麗亞來台灣前強度削弱不少)，北部這現象更明顯(南部三年前的尼伯特莫蘭蒂還滿強的)，回到這颱風，也幸好有95W的干擾，不然以它所處的環境，它至少會增強到中颱上限，目前我覺得它巔峰大概只能到中颱下限到中限。

ericlin6925

這颱風目前各機構都大幅西修了，因此中心通過台東到北部近海機會非常高(尤其是花蓮到北部近海)，強度方面其實它環境還滿不錯，原本是可成為又大又強的颱風，無奈(或幸好)它東邊有95W

ericlin6925

ericlin6925 發表於 2019-8-5 10:25
這颱風目前各機構都大幅西修了，因此中心通過台東到北部近海機會非常高(尤其是花蓮到北部近海)，強度方面其 ...

抱歉，剛按錯回覆鍵了，所以它強度增加的會很緩慢(但還是會慢慢增強)，所以我覺得它接近台灣時強度應會落在中颱下限至中限間(約35至40公尺)，又由於它移動速度緩慢，雲雨在中心西南側，因此如果中心如登陸宜花，則中南部應嚴防豪雨，如果是西北颱，則北部及中部山區(尤其是中部山區)要嚴防豪雨。我覺得如登陸宜花，是真的要小心成為莫拉克第二(北部反而影響較有限)。

天篷大元帥

GFS的電腦模擬變化很大，發警報的機率從百分之四十到百分之八十五(個人推估)，存圖。

來源：https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

(抱歉前後的順序打反了)

老農民版夜神月

JTWC06Z新報路徑西調成登陸台灣,預報巔峰強度也隨之下修為65KT

WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.1N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.1N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.2N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.1N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 129.5E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 456
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND
060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN