簽到天數: 868 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jrchang5|2019-8-20 17:42
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JTWC隨即跟進發布TCFA。
WTPN21 PGTW 200930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 133.8E TO 17.9N 129.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 133.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 133.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, FSM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES (200420Z
AMSR2, 200600Z SSMI, 200654Z SSMIS) INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING OVER VERY WARM WATER (28-29C), WITH
MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) BUT DECREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED INTO BROAD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH THE
MAJORITY INDICATING A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND MULTI-MODEL
DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210930Z.
//
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