WTIO21 PGTW 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 23W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 88.5E TO 12.4N 89.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 89.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 90.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 575
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS LOW LEVEL TURNING UNDERNEATH A CIRRUS
SHIELD. A 051548Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A CIRCULATION WITH AN
AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 27-28
DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OUTLIER AS IT MAINTAINS A MORE WESTERN TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070400Z.//
NNNN
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING
IN A ENO OF 5.0 AND EADJ OF 0.5 FOR A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS
5.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.
