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1922 麥德姆→Bulbul 近岸爆發 殘餘於孟加拉灣增強達VSCS

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-11-6 17:45 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-11-6 18:03 編輯

JTWC 06/04Z發布TCFA。
WTIO21 PGTW 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 23W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 88.5E TO 12.4N 89.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 89.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 90.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 575
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS LOW LEVEL TURNING UNDERNEATH A CIRRUS
SHIELD. A 051548Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A CIRCULATION WITH AN
AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 27-28
DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OUTLIER AS IT MAINTAINS A MORE WESTERN TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070400Z.//
NNNN
wp232019.20191106065210.gif abpwsair.jpg rgb_lalo-animated.gif
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老農民版夜神月|2019-11-7 03:21 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC18Z速報判定,23W於孟加拉灣再度重回TS
23W MATMO 191106 1800 13.6N 90.4E WPAC 35 997
TPIO10 PGTW 061826

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (MATMO)

B. 06/1800Z

C. 13.55N

D. 90.40E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   RICHARDSON
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-RAMMB-HTM71160875.jpg 2019WP23_4KMSRBDC_201911061800.jpg
2019WP23_MIIWVRGB_201911061453.jpg



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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-11-7 05:42 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-11-7 06:25 編輯

IMD判定 06/18Z升格為Cyclonic Storm。由於非以Depression以上強度自西太跨越中南半島或馬來半島進入北印,而是在北印重新發展為Depression,因此不再沿用西太名稱Matmo,而是另命新名Bulbul Screenshots_2019-11-07-06-28-37.png tcacgraphic.png ftrack.png qwind.png 20191106.1900.himawari-8.ir.23W.MATMO.35kts.1000mb.13.7N.90.4E.100pc.jpg rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-11-8 10:04 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z強度升Cat.1。
20191107.2308.f18.ir.olsircomp.23W.MATMO.x.jpg wp232019.20191108011624.gif 23W_071800sair.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-11-8 16:44 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD判定08/00Z升格為VSCS,定強65kts,06Z上調至70kts,預測仍有略為增強的空間。 tcacgraphic (1).png qwind (1).png rgb_lalo-animated.gif



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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-11-9 16:31 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 08/12Z至18Z定強80kts;JTWC則於 08/06Z至18Z定強85kts(C2),強度達到巔峰。
09/00Z,二者均略降為75kts,開始逐漸減弱。
目前中心正逐漸朝印度西孟加拉邦與孟加拉海岸逼近,即將於稍晚登陸。
tcacgraphic (2).png wp2319.gif 20191109.0750.himawari-8.vis.23W.MATMO.70kts.983mb.20.7N.87.6E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-9 18:27 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-11-10 02:45 編輯

23W(BULBUL-MATMO)於接近孟加拉及印度西孟加拉邦沿岸陸地時再度增強,風眼曾短暫開啟,SSD09/0830Z德法分析一度達5.5
TXIO25 KNES 090932
TCSNIO

A.  23W (BULBUL-MATMO)

B.  09/0830Z

C.  20.9N

D.  87.9E

E.  ONE/MET-8

F.  T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING
IN A ENO OF 5.0 AND EADJ OF 0.5 FOR A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS
5.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK
20191109   0830    20.9   -87.9     T5.5/5.5       23W  BULBUL-MATMO   
20191109   0230    20.3   -87.8     T4.5/4.5       23W  BULBUL-MATMO   
20191108   2030    19.5   -87.7     T4.0/4.0       23W  BULBUL-MATMO   
20191108   1430    18.8   -88.0     T3.5/4.5       23W  BULBUL-MATMO   

2019WP23_4KMSRBDC_201911090900.jpg #!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-RAMMB-HTM6064734.jpg
21218.jpg 21219.jpg
21220.jpg 21221.jpg


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t02436|2019-11-9 23:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 12Z將強度再度上調到85節,IMD維持70節,風眼逐漸上陸。
wp2319.gif

tcacgraphic.png

20191109.1206.f17.91pct91h91v.23W.MATMO.85kts.971mb.21.2N.87.9E.065pc.jpg

23W11091458.png

3Dsecse_nhc.jpg
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