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05A.Maha 曾與Kyarr阿拉伯海罕見雙旋並立

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

2019-10-26 15:33 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-11-7 16:51 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :05 A
擾動編號日期:2019 10 26 14
撤編日期  :2019 10 00 00

99B INVEST 191026 0600 7.4N 87.0E IO 15 0
150229ze0ttcxxc88h0eca.jpg


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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
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老農民版夜神月|2019-10-28 08:02 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC27/1800Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N
83.3E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271315Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION WITH SOME MIDLEVEL ROTATION
ABOVE A CONSOLIDATING LLC. A 271533Z ASCAT PASS FURTHER SHOWS THE
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLC, WITH 15-20 KT WINDS BELOW THE
CONVECTION AND A WEAK BUT DEFINED RETURN FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS,
STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO WESTWARD FLOW, AND WARM (29-31C) SSTS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BUT AGREE ON TRACK,
PREDICTING 99B WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER
ROUNDING THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT. ECMWF AND UKMO CALL FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 84, WHILE GFS AND NAVGEM
MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair1027.jpg 2019IO99_4KMIRIMG_201910272315.gif
2019IO99_4KMSRBDC_201910272315.jpg


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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-10-29 14:13 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-10-29 14:26 編輯

JTWC29/0230Z提升評級為Medium
ABIO10 PGTW 290230
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 83.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 310
NM SOUTH OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 282352Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING
CONVECTION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION ABOVE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG UL
DIVERGENCE DUE TO WESTWARD FLOW, AND WARM (29-31C) SSTS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND TRACK. ECMWF SHOWS THE
SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH AND TURNING WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA WHILE NAVGEM SHOWS INVEST 99B TRACKING MORE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT. NAVGEM CALLS FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72, WHILE GSM
AND GFS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair1019.jpg 19265.jpg
19264.jpg


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t02436|2019-10-30 13:34 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD編號ARB04
ARB 04.png

ARB04 10300500Z.png
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老農民版夜神月|2019-10-30 17:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC跳過TCFA,直接升格05A.強度上望85節不封頂
WTIO32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z --- NEAR 8.8N 74.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 74.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 10.8N 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 12.6N 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 14.3N 71.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 15.7N 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 17.7N 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 18.3N 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 18.2N 62.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 74.5E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN 300507Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
AND ON A 300600Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY 35 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN THE ASCAT DATA. TC 05A HAS
CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS), FAVORABLE
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72, BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE AS ADDITIONAL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE
UKMET, GALWEM AND NAVGEM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN INDIA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS NOTEWORTHY, BUT HAS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 05A MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES. BASED ON NOTED DISCREPANCIES IN
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

io0519.gif 05A_300600sair.jpg
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-wv0.gi118647921.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2019-10-31 02:21 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD升格氣旋風暴,命名Maha
FKIN21 DEMS 301525
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20191030/1200Z
TC: MAHA
NR: 01
PSN: N0900 E07406
MOV: NW13KT
C: 0998HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 30/1800Z N1000 E07330
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 040 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 31/0000Z N1054 E07254
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 045KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 31/0600Z N1154 E07224
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 050KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 31/1200Z N1254 E07148
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 55KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191030/2030Z
TOO: 302050 HRS IST
003413wiwwbuhyvd8euurx.png #!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-RAMMB-HTM153390468.jpg
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-RAMMB-HTM153425531.jpg


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老農民版夜神月|2019-11-4 00:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC定強已達85節,預計24H內將達C3,而JTWC15Z最新德法亦已達5.5
WTIO32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 65.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 65.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.1N 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 18.6N 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.0N 63.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 19.4N 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 20.1N 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 21.3N 71.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 65.4E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 7NM
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A
031053Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA ERODING THE STR,
WHICH REGRESSES WESTWARD. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WILL PRODUCE AN ABRUPT
EASTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL VORTEX
TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND
INCREASINGLY HIGHER VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN
TPIO11 PGTW 031526

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA)

B. 03/1500Z

C. 17.83N

D. 65.61E

E. ONE/MET8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN
io0519.gif 05A_031200sair.jpg
20191103.1530.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.05AMAHA.80kts-979mb-177N-657E.100pc.jpg 05A.gif



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IMD亦升格ESCS,預測24H內強度將達巔峰100KT
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