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mathew12310|2011-8-9 08:58
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JTWC竟然這麼快就評級LOW!
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.5N 152.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF CHICHIJIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 081937Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE INDICATE A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. MSI ALSO DEPICTS COOLER,
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY, HOWEVER, THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES A SMALL SYSTEM WITH A
COCOON OF DEEP MOISTURE. A 081131Z ASCAT IMAGE AS WELL AS THE RECENT
CIMSS 850MB VORTICITY PRODUCT SHOWS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED LLCC.
OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) AND THE
PROXIMITY TO MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. |
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