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老農民版夜神月|2020-10-26 04:50
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JTWC21Z發布Final Warning
WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 107.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.5N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.7N 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 106.8E.
25OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
117 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAPIDLY-DECAYING CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A 251740Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAK
OVERALL STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WEAK OUTFLOW. TD 19W SLOWED BRIEFLY BUT IS NOW TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. TD 19W WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF VIETNAM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 11 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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