dom

Yasa約在今天08Z前後以澳5姿態登陸斐濟，JTWC16/00Z評價140KT創下南太開季最早C5，比ZOE還早了11天!!
補16/00Z圖

老農民版夜神月

逐漸減弱,FMS18Z定強降至澳式C4,105KT
JTWC18Z降至C2,95KT

HURRICANE WARNING 065 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 171921 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 920HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0
SOUTH 179.0 WEST AT 171800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.0S 179.0W at 171800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.3S 177.6W AT 186000 UTC
AND NEAR 20.6S 176.6W AT 181800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 064.

05P YASA 201217 1800 17.6S 179.5W SHEM 95 959

老農民版夜神月

逐漸南下，將在兩日內轉化，這個南太平洋官方定強次強氣旋終將逐漸走向終點

STORM WARNING 069 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 181921 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3 SOUTH 176.8
WEST AT 181800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.3S 176.8W at 181800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS AT
191200UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 125 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 125 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.5S 177.5W AT 190600 UTC
AND NEAR 23.1S 178.2W AT 191800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 068.

老農民版夜神月

FMS判定Yasa於18Z已成後熱帶氣旋

GALE WARNING 072 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 191244 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7 SOUTH 179.4
WEST AT 191200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.7S 179.4W AT 191200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS BY
200000UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 190 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 070 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.7S 179.8W AT 200000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.6S 179.4E AT 201200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 071.

Gale Warning 072 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 192003 UTC.

FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 22.9S 177.9W AT
191800UTC. FORMER TC YASA MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. POSITION
GOOD.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF FORMER
TC YASA CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 071.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC則認為05P.Yasa將於未來一天內轉化為副熱帶風暴

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 178.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 178.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 23.7S 178.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 24.5S 179.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 178.2W.
19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE
CENTER OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 191800Z
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND A 50 KNOT 191736Z CIMSS SATCON AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. TC 05P HAS TRACKED STEADILY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG, AND INCREASING, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS DISPLACED LIMITED REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE AND CORE
TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF TC 05P ARE STEADILY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL.
TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE STEERING
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAVORABLE
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT
THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, OFFSETTING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF
SUSTAINED, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEAR-TERM
TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

dom

JTWC00Z發佈FW

老農民版夜神月

JTWC06Z仍認定其維持於TS,就Yasa能撐到什麼時候了

SH, 05, 2020122006, , BEST, 0, 238S, 1784W, 45, 989, TS,

蜜露

這個是今年南半球最強的氣旋，可能比半年前登陸萬那杜的Ｈarold還強一點







不過如果照南半球風季規則，Yasa算是7月後2021的風季，Ｈarold是上一季7月前屬於2020風季