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MFR編號擾動區第5號，上望中等熱帶風暴

老農民版夜神月

MFR升格熱帶低壓

DEPRESSION TROPICALE numéro 5
Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 75 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1000 hPa.
Position le 31 décembre à 16 heures locales: 13.8 Sud / 83.7 Est.

老農民版夜神月

MFR新報改為認為93S後期將遭受96S併吞

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302051ZDEC20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 302100). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 85.5E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 792 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
301308Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST FROM MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. INVEST
93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (>25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH INVEST 96S, POTENTIALLY ABSORBING INVEST 93S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

從機構和數值的反應上來看,似乎已經是難以逃過將被整併的命運
就看能不能在被左側的96S併吞前獲得JTWC或MFR的升格

老農民版夜神月

JTWC降評Low

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.7S 80.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 77.4E, APPROXIMATELY 498
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY 350 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TC 08S AND HAS BEGUN FUJIWARA INTERACTION. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021609Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDING AND ISOLATED
FLARING CONVECTION. A 021610Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A BROAD AND
ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF MOSTLY 10-15KT WINDS ADJACENT TO AN
EXTENSIVE REGION OF 25-30KT GRADIENT WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN TC 08S WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

MFR認為其已即將遭受08S的併吞

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 77.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.