老農民版夜神月

JTWC03Z發布Final Warning

WTPS33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 167.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 167.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 23.0S 166.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 167.0E.
03FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED SOUTHWARD  
PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MSI LOOP ALSO
SHOWS VIGOROUS COLD AIR ADVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP, AND LINED
UP WITH A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 022226Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS, THE 030040Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 41KTS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, AND PGTW/KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.5/35KTS. CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS INDICATES TC LUCAS IS QUICKLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL AND WILL COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12. AS SUCH, THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE JTWC WARNING CRITERIA.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z
IS 14 FEET.//
NNNN

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FMS判定該系統已減弱成低壓區

Gale Warning 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 031302 UTC.  

LOW PRESSURE L [FORMER TC LUCAS] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 166.5E AT 031200 UTC.

POSITION GOOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS.  

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF L IN THE QUADRANTS NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST.  

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF L IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANTS.  

AREAS OF GALES MOVING WITH THE LOW.  

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING NUMBER 026.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC判定17P於03/06Z轉化為副熱帶氣旋

SH, 17, 2021020300, , BEST, 0, 219S, 1671E, 40, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 80, 110, 65, 1000, 230, 60, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, LUCAS, M,
SH, 17, 2021020306, , BEST, 0, 223S, 1670E, 45, 988, SS, 34, NEQ, 65, 165, 150, 70, 1000, 190, 60, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, LUCAS, M,
SH, 17, 2021020312, , BEST, 0, 227S, 1668E, 40, 991, SS, 34, NEQ, 60, 180, 180, 50, 1001, 225, 60, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, LUCAS, M,