Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:24 pm CST on Friday 5 February 2021
for the period until midnight CST Monday 8 February 2021.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon is becoming more active across the Arafura Sea as a renewed surge develops in the monsoon northwesterlies. A tropical low is beginning to form within the monsoon trough in the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria.
The tropical low is expected to remain over the Gulf of Carpentaria and move over land in the Northern Territory's Carpentaria District overnight on Saturday or Sunday morning. It is most likely the low will not have sufficient time over water to develop into a cyclone, but there is a low chance of development if the low remains over water for a longer period.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday: Low
Monday:Very Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.1S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060710Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOW FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 91P
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ENTER OVER NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA, RESULTING IN A LOW LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
A tropical low, 998 hPa, was located over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria, near 14.4S 137.3E, which is about 90 km east southeast of Groote Eylandt and 170 km north northeast of Port McArthur, at 12:30 pm CST on Saturday 6 February. The tropical low is expected to strengthen over water as it moves slowly southwards today and is likely to cross the coast between Port Roper and the Queensland border on Sunday morning. The low is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone but strong winds and heavy rainfall will occur.
During Sunday and Monday, the tropical low is expected to move west southwest across the Northern Territory, bringing further heavy rainfall, flooding and possible damaging wind gusts.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday: Low
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 137.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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