dom

  熱帶氣旋  
編號：11-20202021 ( 21 S )
名稱：Guambe

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2021 年 02 月 10 日 18 時
JTWC升格日期:2021 年 02 月 18 日 03 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 02 月 17 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 02 月 22 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：85 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：85 kt ( TY )
海平面最低氣壓：953 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
93S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-22.5S-40.0E
以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

MFR對93S也算關注很多天了，但是如同數值所預報的，光是路徑，走向。不確定性還真是滿大的

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1400Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
23.8S 37.6E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM EAST OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 110135Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
FAIR DIVERGENCE ALOFT, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTER LAND
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

GFS最新預報將於24H內登陸並逐漸深入非洲陸地

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0100Z提升評級為Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.8S 37.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 23.2E, APPROXIMATELY 92
NM NORTH OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED
AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION , GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH
TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 111901Z MHS NOAA 89H GHZ IMAGE
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE EAST WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE 111954Z ASCAT(METOP-C) PASS DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED WIND FIELD WITH 30-35KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLC AND WEAKER
WINDS TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
BURGEONING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 93S
WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, MAINTAINING AN ASYMTETRIC WINDFIELD,
BEFORE ENCOUNTERING LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH MINIMAL
OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO
LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

dom

JTWC00Z升格TD

93S INVEST 210212 0000 23.2S 36.7E SHEM 25 1003

dom

93S已位於非洲陸地上，預料會在該處至莫三比克海域間徘徊

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消評級

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12FEB21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1408 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 120900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN