1111 南瑪都轉熱低解除颱風警報中南部豪雨特報

abc123nba · 2011-8-21 16:47

EC這報個人認為機率不太高,有點發抽的感覺
像是系統沒抓到然後算成2個系統

兩系統強度相當範圍相當,然後非 ...
ktf 發表於 2011-8-21 15:39

我也覺得那樣的機率不高

不過以前也是有類似這樣的事情發生

所以也不能太早斷定

就看ec下一報會不會堅持這樣的路徑吧

ben811018 · 2011-8-21 17:09

96W的LLCC持續狹長~不過螺旋性也愈來愈明顯

日本一帶的槽線東移之後~副高勢力也明顯減弱

台灣及西太遠洋皆有副高勢力存在~

95W逐漸北上並阻擋副高西伸

台灣附近的高壓單體會逐漸減弱~

短時間96W為沿著副高單體的邊緣向西移動~

高壓單體崩壞之後偏北的分量就會開始出現

數值預報顯示在未來幾天西太洋面擾動相當活躍~

擾動之間不排除會相互干擾~因此後續路徑變化非常大

ktf · 2011-8-21 20:48

96W東面有明顯渦度,如果這裡也獨立發展起來就會兩者互相牽制兩敗俱傷
像米雷的情況一樣,96w可以直接有南海水氣支援,東方若發展出規模雖然沒有較好的水氣支援
但是東邊能明顯影響干擾西邊的系統強度發展(加強垂直風切)

如果這樣就必須合併成功才能有明顯強度發展,因此EC下午的預測很難實現
要兩者勢力範圍相當,如此近距離很難實現,通常會兩敗俱傷

fdisk222 · 2011-8-21 20:56

回復 19# ktf

不過目前96W開始快速發展~環流小~發展快~
不管這麼說窩度也比下午加深了~就看明天會不
會升評了~不過明天升評機會很大~雲都被96W
吸走~東邊那塊窩度要發展也比較難~再看了~

ktf · 2011-8-21 21:16

回復 ktf

不過目前96W開始快速發展~環流小~發展快~
不管這麼說窩度也比下午加深了~就看明天會不
會升評 ...
fdisk222 發表於 2011-8-21 20:56

96W不小喔,應該說是大低壓帶裡的LLCC,就和米雷那時狀況有點像
容易有多重LLCC發展,對96w來說當然迅速發展並取得優勢最好
不過除非完取得優勢,規模強度有明顯發展才能讓東邊系統發展不了

否則一但東邊也發展起來,除非合併否則就會互相受牽制

fdisk222 · 2011-8-21 21:37

回復 21# ktf

恩~了解就看造化了
不過說實在96W已經有氣旋的樣子了
這幾天再看看吧~~^^

abc123nba · 2011-8-21 21:57

本帖最後由 abc123nba 於 2011-8-21 21:58 編輯

TCFA了

預測是往東北

不過不知道他會在什麼地方北轉

未來北轉的路徑應該是一個很大的變數吧

夢翔 · 2011-8-21 21:57

本帖最後由夢翔於 2011-8-21 22:05 編輯

96W TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 211400MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 128.3E TO 18.7N 129.4EWITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 211330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 12.9N 128.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT15 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOIUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N130.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITEIMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OFTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED ANDDEEPENED. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 211054Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD OUTFLOWCHANNEL EMERGED, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS INAN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVELPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB. DUE TO THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT INTHE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLEDBY 221400Z.//NNNN