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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-6 14:35
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-6 15:44 編輯
約於06Z系統已經出海，未來將有大約24小時的時間可以爭取獲名WTIO30 FMEE 060728
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/14/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 14
2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
24H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
36H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 35 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 20 SW: 75 NW: 65
48H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 140 NW: 95
60H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 65
72H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 155 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 65
120H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM MOVED OFFSHORE NEAR VATOMANDRY THIS MORNING AFTER CROSSING
THE MALAGASY LANDMASS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER WEAK AND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS QUITE ELONGATED.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A PASSAGE AT MORE THAN 100 KM IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING, EVEN IF MEDIUM UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
TRACK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CAPTURED BY A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BRING IT SOUTH OF 25S, FAR FROM THE
INHABITED ISLANDS, ALONG A SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION MIGHT BE
TEMPORARILY TRAPPED NORTH OF 30S WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW HIGH
PRESSURE CELL FROM THE WEST.
TODAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT ESPECIALLY
WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY AND COULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE. BUT BY SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO START ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THEN.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, FOR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, A SIGNIFICANT BUT
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN REUNION ISLAND.=
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