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MFR12Z發佈最終報
WTIO30 FMEE 241219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/16/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 16 (JOBO)
2.A POSITION 2021/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 39.9 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 6.5 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS DISSIPATING AGAIN, IT REMAINS
PRESENT ONLY ALONG THE COAST OF TANZANIA SOUTH OF ZANZIBAR ISLAND AND
OVER THE EXTREME NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY CONSTRAINT, WEAKENING AT MID LEVEL,
BUT INCREASING IN ALTITUDE. IT IS A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD LAND IN
THE NEXT HOURS OR IN THE BEGINIG OF THE NIGHT, FILLING UP QUICKLY
WHEN IT ARRIVES ON LAND.
WITH A LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW, ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, JOBO
IS APPROACHING THE TANZANIAN COAST AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 40KM FROM
THE COAST. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO LAND NEAR THE CITY OF DAR EL SALAAM
AND THE ISLAND OF ZANZIBAR.
IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS AT THE LANDING OF JOBO, THE IMPACTS WILL
BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF WIND BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LANDING AREA BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA, AND EVEN OVER NORTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. FOR THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS, WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN REACH 200/300 MM IN 24 HOURS (EVEN VERY
LOCALLY 400 MM), THAT IS TO SAY QUANTITIES EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY
ACCUMULATION FOR A MONTH OF APRIL.
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. 
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