老農民版夜神月

JTWC2200Z評級Low

ABPW10 PGTW 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/112200Z-120600ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.4N
131.6W, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 111923Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT CONSOLIDATED AND FLARING CONVECTION OVER A WEAK,
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 96W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND WEAK (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO LOW//
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老農民版夜神月

96W剛出爐的最新風場

dom

JTWC06Z評級提升至Medium

   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 210
NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)  
DEPICTS BROAD LOWER LEVEL TURNING MARGINALLY DECOUPLED FROM A MORE
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN 112304Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS A
BROAD LOWER LEVEL CIRUCLATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW
MARGINALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS PREDICT THAT 96W WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION
AS IT PROPAGATES NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

dom

入夜對流爆發，風場掃描有少量25KT旗子，JTWC09Z分析T1.0，SSD12Z分析T1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 120859
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (W OF PALAU)
B. 12/0840Z
C. 7.16N
D. 130.28E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES

TXPQ21 KNES 121207
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 12/1130Z
C. 7.1N
D. 130.2E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 3/10
BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 1.0 AND PT
IS EQUAL TO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TUGGLE

96W INVEST 210512 1200 6.8N 130.9E WPAC 20 1007

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1600Z發布TCFA

WTPN22 PGTW 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.6N 131.3E TO 8.7N 124.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 130.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT AREA OF CONVECTION OBSCURING A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT IS EVIDENT IN DATA FROM A 121302Z ASCAT-B PASS.
FURTHERMORE, THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS 20-25 KTS WINDS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ISOLATED REGIONS OF
HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DIVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE
OVERHEAD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 131600Z.
//
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老農民版夜神月

JTWC改12Z強度至TD,即將升格03W

96W INVEST 210512 1200 6.8N 130.5E WPAC 25 1007

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18升格03W

03W THREE 210512 1800 7.0N 129.9E WPAC 30 1001

老農民版夜神月

JTWC首報上望40節

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121551ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 7.0N 129.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 129.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 7.3N 128.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 7.6N 127.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 8.0N 125.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 8.6N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 9.0N 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 7.1N 129.6E.
12MAY21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
256 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND
132100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 1500).//
//
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