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2103 彩雲 路徑較預期偏西穿越菲國 年度首個海陸警

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-28 03:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-5-28 03:45 編輯

ASCAT昨夜風場,怪不得JTWC會將其定強再度下調至15KT
99W INVEST 210527 1800 6.8N 143.6E WPAC 15 1007

LATEST.jpg 20210527.1112.mtb.ASCAT.wind.99W.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.74N.1458E.25km.jpeg
20210527.0957.mta.ASCAT.wind.99W.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.74N.1458E.25km.jpeg 20210527.0956.mta.ASCAT.wind.99W.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.74N.1458E.25km.jpeg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-29 07:31 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-5-29 07:40 編輯

相比隔壁一直較看好90W的GFS,EC12Z無論系集或決定報,更為看好99W發展將壓過90W
就看接下來幾天的發展結果吧
ecmwf_uv850_vort_wpac_fh0-240 (1).gif wpac (10).png
eastasia (9).png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-29 07:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA天氣圖同樣持續較看好99W,並預測+48H時其已為TD
20210528202901_0_Z__C_010000_20210528180000_MET_CHT_JCIasas_JCP600x512_JRcolor_T.png 20210528190100_0_Z__C_010000_20210528120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas24_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
20210528191731_0_Z__C_010000_20210528120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas48_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-29 07:52 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS18Z最新預報及系集
99W_tracks_latest (1).png 99W_gefs_latest (2).png
20210528.2320.himawari-8.vis.99W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6.1N.139E.100pc.jpg 20210528.1231.mtb.ASCAT.wind.99W.INVEST.15kts-1006mb.52N.1415E.25km.noqc.jpeg
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簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-29 14:35 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-5-29 14:45 編輯

JTWC06Z評級提升至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 142.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 74
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY MINIMAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND
STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
421B9C9D-32CE-49E3-AB4D-C55B8E7E3500.jpeg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2021-5-29 17:12 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 06Z 99W升格為TD,而90W則維持LPA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 06N 136E WNW 10 KT.
JMA0529-06.PNG
20210529.0840.himawari-8.ir.99W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.6.8N.135.7E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-30 02:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC跳過TCFA,直接升格04W
TPPN11 PGTW 291801

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF PALAU)

B. 29/1740Z

C. 6.04N

D. 134.45E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   ELIAS


20210529.1820.himawari-8.ir.04W.FOUR.25kts.1003mb.6.4N.134.5E.100pc.jpg 20210529.1709.npp.165bt.04W.FOUR.25kts.1003mb.6.4N.134.5E.065pc (1).jpg

LATEST (2).jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-30 06:27 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC首報上望70KT不封頂 wp0421.gif 04W_291800sair.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z --- NEAR 6.4N 134.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.4N 134.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 7.0N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 8.0N 132.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 9.2N 131.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 10.4N 130.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 13.2N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 15.7N 126.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 18.6N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 6.5N 134.2E.
29MAY21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56
NM SOUTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
NNNN
20210529.2200.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.6.4N.150.4E.100pc.jpg wpac (12).png
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