入夜之後對流爆發 有利於重整結構
JTWC升MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 031234Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REORIENTING TO THE NORTHWEST INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 133.4E TO 17.0N 126.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 133.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY
240 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 031605Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING IN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REORIENTING
TO THE NORTHWEST INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT ARE SPLIT REGARDING
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS BUT ECMWF AND JMA STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. A 031241Z
PARTIAL METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE WIND FIELD WITH SMALL
POCKETS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT,
VERIFYING MODEL INITIALIZATION. THIS INDICATES THE HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION SHOWN BY GFS AND NAVGEM
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041930Z.//
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