king111807

  基本資料  
編號               ：91 W
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 09 月 27 日 13 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
91W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb-20.8N-152.3E

霧峰追風者

JMA:TD

jwpk9899

JTWC: MEDIUM
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 272107Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 272143Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ELONGATED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT DISAGREE REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING INTENSIFICATION BUT ECMWF AND JMA REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC降評至Low

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY
787 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING, ALBEIT DIMINISHING, CONVECTION SHEARED 150+
NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED, WEAK, N-S ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MEDIUM EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
91W IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

king111807

JTWC撤評

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9N 155.2E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

king111807

JMA撤TD