(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.7N 69.4E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041334Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE INDICATE SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 040441Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS 20-25 KT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE SLOW, MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 69.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BULLETIN NUMBER: 01 (AS/03/2021)
TIME OF ISSUE:1220 HOURS IST DATED: 07.11.2021
Sub: (a) Depression over east-central Arabian Sea &
(b) Likely formation of a Low Pressure Area over southeast Bay of Bengal, its
intensification & movement towards north Tamil Nadu coast during 9th – 11th
November 2021.
(a) Depression over east-central Arabian Sea
Latest Satellite and Ships & Buoy observations indicate that a Depression has formed
over eastcentral Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 7
th November, 2021,
near latitude 14.0°N and longitude 67.5°E, about 800 km southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra)
& 700 km west-southwest of Panjim (Goa). It is likely to move west-northwestwards and
maintain the intensity of a Depression during next 48 hours and weaken gradually thereafter.
As the system is very likely to move west-northwestwards away from the Indian
coast no adverse impact is likely over the Indian landmass.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
Date/Time (IST) Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E) Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph) Category of cyclonic disturbance
07.11.21/0830 14.0/67.5 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
07.11.21/1730 14.3/66.8 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
08.11.21/0830 14.5/66.3 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
08.11.21/1730 14.7/65.0 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
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