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AS 03(90A)

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2021-11-4 16:12 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號               :90 A
擾動編號日期 :2021 11 04 15
撤編日期        :2021 11
00 00
90A.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.9.9N.67.5E

20211104.0630.msg-1.ir.90A.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.9.9N.67.5E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-5 06:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-11-5 06:14 編輯

JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.7N 69.4E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041334Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE INDICATE SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 040441Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS 20-25 KT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE SLOW, MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair (14).jpg 20211104.2100.msg-1.ir.90A.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.11N.68.6E.100pc.jpg 20211104.1639.mtc.ASCAT.wind.90A.INVEST.20kts-1006mb.110N.686E.25km.noqc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-11-6 02:43 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC維持其評級為Low,目前看來數值反應仍不強烈,發展機會略微偏低 abpwsair (37).jpg 90A_gefs_latest.png 網頁擷取_6-11-2021_24050_www.easterlywave.com.jpeg
20211105.1630.msg-1.ir.90A.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.13.6N.67.9E.100pc.jpg 20211105.1707.mtb.ASCAT.wind.90A.INVEST.20kts-1006mb.136N.679E.25km.noqc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-11-7 02:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-11-7 02:34 編輯

JTWC對90A撤評(下文中應為90A)
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 69.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

abpwsair (39).jpg 20211106.1700.msg-1.ir.90A.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.13.3N.66.9E.100pc.jpg 20211106.1528.mta.ASCAT.wind.90A.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.133N.669E.25km.noqc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-11-7 18:57 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD編號AS03 183257hl3r839c75lwzx23.png 183257euzfgakuggs6e60n.png

BULLETIN NUMBER: 01 (AS/03/2021)
TIME OF ISSUE:1220 HOURS IST DATED: 07.11.2021


Sub: (a) Depression over east-central Arabian Sea &
(b) Likely formation of a Low Pressure Area over southeast Bay of Bengal, its
intensification & movement towards north Tamil Nadu coast during 9th – 11th
November 2021.

(a) Depression over east-central Arabian Sea
Latest Satellite and Ships & Buoy observations indicate that a Depression has formed
over eastcentral Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 7
th November, 2021,
near latitude 14.0°N and longitude 67.5°E, about 800 km southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra)
& 700 km west-southwest of Panjim (Goa). It is likely to move west-northwestwards and
maintain the intensity of a Depression during next 48 hours and weaken gradually thereafter.
As the system is very likely to move west-northwestwards away from the Indian
coast no adverse impact is likely over the Indian landmass.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
Date/Time (IST) Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E) Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph) Category of cyclonic disturbance
07.11.21/0830 14.0/67.5 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
07.11.21/1730 14.3/66.8 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
08.11.21/0830 14.5/66.3 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
08.11.21/1730 14.7/65.0 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
20211107.1000.msg-1.ir.90A.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.13.9N.68.4E.100pc.jpg 20211107.0518.mtb.ASCAT.wind.90A.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.139N.684E.25km.noqc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-9 05:09 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-11-9 14:20 編輯

IMD認為其系統已過發展期,目前已略微有所減弱,定強下調至20KT
6_8457d7_TRACK0818.png 網頁擷取_9-11-2021_5241_rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in.jpeg
20211108.1447.mta.ASCAT.wind.90A.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.136N.657E.25km.noqc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-11-9 14:21 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD降格WML
11bb2e738bd4b31c7707caaddad6277f9e2ff840.png 20211109.0500.msg-1.ir.90A.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.2N.65.7E.100pc.jpg
20211109.0319.mta.ASCAT.wind.90A.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.132N.657E.25km.noqc.jpg 90A_gefs_latest (2).png
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