老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：19 E
名稱：Sandra

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 11 月 05 日 01 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 11 月 08 日 03 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 11 月 10 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：35  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1006 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
94E.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.12N.106W


NHC：30%

2. An area of disturbed weather associated with widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located several hundred
miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form later this week or this weekend while the disturbance
moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph well to the
south of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至Medium,40%

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 107.4W TO 14.2N 114.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110512Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 107.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 107.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 107.5W, APPROXIMATELY
674NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CENTRALIZED CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061430Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至High,70%

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain concentrated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. In addition, recent satellite wind
data indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined and is producing winds of 30-35 mph. Environmental
conditions are marginally favorable for additional development and a
tropical depression is now likely to form by this weekend while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至80%,可能短暫成旋

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Only a small increase in organization will likely lead to the
formation of a short-lived tropical depression either today or
tomorrow as the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for
further development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格19E,看好短暫發展並混名

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 071459
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192021
800 AM MST Sun Nov 07 2021

The broad area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the last
several days well south of the Baja California Peninsula has
improved in organization this morning. Overnight scatterometer
data suggested that a better defined center was trying to develop
close to the deep convection. Microwave data from an 0857 UTC AMSR2
pass also indicated low-level cloud curvature on the 37-GHz
channel, suggesting a well-defined center had formed. Indeed, first
light 1-min visible imagery from a GOES-17 mesoscale domain now
shows a tight low-level swirl located just to the west of a new
burst of deep convection. All these data suggest the system's
circulation is now well-defined. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are both at CI 2.5/35 kt,  
suggesting the depression may already be close to tropical storm
intensity.  

The initial motion of the depression is estimated to be 290/7 kt,
though uncertainty exists since the center only recently became
well-defined. The system currently lies along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This synoptic
pattern should allow the depression to maintain a west-northwest
motion over the next 12-24 hours while it remains vertically coupled
to the deep-convection. Afterwards, the remaining deep convection
is expected to dissipate and the leftover shallow vortex is
expected to be increasingly steered around a low-level ridge
offshore of the west coast of Mexico. This pattern should cause the
cyclone to turn westward and then west-southwestward over the
remainder of its lifespan. The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement on this general solution, and the NHC official track lies
close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.

As mentioned above, the subjective satellite estimates already
suggest that this system could be near tropical storm intensity and
the peak wind from the overnight scatterometer data was 31 kt.
While the system is currently battling about 20-25 kt of
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, this magnitude is not
expected to change much during the next 12-24 hours. Thus, there is
an opportunity for some slight intensification, which is reflected
in the NHC intensity forecast which takes the system up to a
35-kt tropical storm by tonight. However, increasing shear and a
drying mid-level environment should result in weakening beginning by
36 hours with the storm forecast to become a remnant low by
Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the consensus
aids, but a bit below the latest HWRF/HMON runs which suggests a
slightly higher 40-45 kt peak intensity.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 14.3N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  08/1200Z 15.1N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  09/0000Z 15.6N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  09/1200Z 15.6N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  10/0000Z 15.3N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

老農民版夜神月

結果要率先升格TS獲名的反而是風場看起來相對不怎麼樣的19E?

EP, 19, 2021110718, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1147W, 35, 1006, TS,

老農民版夜神月

NRL18Z報文正式命名Sandra

19E SANDRA 211107 1800 13.8N 114.7W EPAC 35 1006