老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：98 S
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 12 月 26 日 03 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 12 月 00 日 00 時
98S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10S.97E

老農民版夜神月

BoM於展望中提到此系統,認為將不會有明顯發展

A weak tropical low is currently to the north of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, around 10.2S 97.6E at 12:00pm Monday. While the low may persist over open waters for most of the week, it is expected to remain a weak system.


Likelihood of a system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.1S 97.5E, APPROXIMATELY 37 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281032Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. IN ADDITION,
FORMATIVE BANDING APPEARS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY OFF
THE WESTERN COAST OF SUMATRA WITH FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消評級

ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/291800Z-301800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 12.1S 97.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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