dom

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編號               ：09 P
擾動編號日期 ：2022 年 01 月 30 日 01 時
撤編日期        ：2022 年 01 月 00 日 00 時
98P INVEST 220129 1200 14.1S 147.4E SHEM 15 0

周子堯@FB

JTWC 30/15Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.2S 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM NORTH OF WILLIS ISLAND. A 301128Z
METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAX WINDS AROUND AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PATCHES OF 30KTS IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
AND A 1208Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTLY EXPOSED AND DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AN AGREEMENT OF A
WEAK AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.