Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:35 pm WST on Tuesday 1 February 2022
for the period until midnight WST Friday 4 February 2022.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough currently lies over the Kimberley, producing areas of heavy rain with squally monsoonal showers and thunderstorms. Flood Watches and Warnings as well as a Severe Weather Warning are current. Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.
At 11am WST Tuesday a weak tropical low, 14U, was located within the trough near 19.5S 125.E, about 160 kilometres south of Fitzroy Crossing. It is expected to be slow moving until late Wednesday when it will weaken and move northwest crossing the Kimberley coast near Broome on Friday. It is NOT expected to strengthen once over water.
There are no other significant systems in the region and none are expected for at least the next three days.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
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