霧峰追風者

基本資料  
編號　　　　：01 B
擾動編號日期：2022 年 03 月 02 日 06 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 03 月 07 日 08 時
90B.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-6.1N-90.6E

霧峰追風者

JTWC 12z評級 Low。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY
395NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 021040Z SSMIS 94GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN
OBSCURED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
AS 90B IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SEA TEMPURATURES (29-30C) AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHING OVER THE NEXT 36-
48 HOURS. AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SRI LANKA AND THE
SOUTH EASTERN COAST OF INDIA THE WINDOW FOR 90B TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IS LIMITED WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING IT WILL
REACH LAND AT ROUGHLY THE SAME INSTANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.

霧峰追風者

IMD 強度已升低壓。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 評級提升Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A
031028Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT WEAK BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). IN ADDITION, DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
INCLUDE FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36-48HRS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

TPIO10 PGTW 032351
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90B (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 03/2315Z
C. 8.89N
D. 83.69E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   AMARAL

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

t02436

昨天21Z已升格01B，但預測即將減弱。