(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 14S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 29.5S 79.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 30.5S 79.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 1094 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 050049Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) WITH A PROMINENT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
POLEWARD EDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (23-24 C), DRY AIR DOMINATING THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH
(20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS 14S IS FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 14S WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED
FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 55.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 412
NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 051252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DEFINED BY
FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO
THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPRETURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 37.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 37.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPIDLY WEAKENING
CONVECTION WITH A THIN CANOPY OF CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151124Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS VERY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 150619Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANTLY 15-25 KNOT
WINDS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAIR EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR IS PROXIMITY TO LAND. ECMWF INITIALIZES THIS SYSTEM
BETTER THAN GFS AND MAINTAINS A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE
NEXT DAY THEN A SLOW DRIFT INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE BY TAU 48 AT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. GFS IS NOT HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL
AND SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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