簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2022-3-15 17:08
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JTWC評級Medium，中心裸露
(1) THE REMNANTS OF 19S (GOMBE) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3S
37.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 37.3E. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142312Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES FLARING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE PAST 6
TO 12 HOURS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REMNANTS OF GOMBE REMAIN IN A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
20KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CIRCULATION WILL TRACK BACK
OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, IF 19S REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY OFFSHORE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW
FOR REDEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.1S 50.5E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141855Z GMI 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVING DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSETTING MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SYMMETRIC. GLOBAL MODELS, NAMELY ECMWF, ARE INDICATING A SHORT LIVED
OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM. 
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