簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2022-5-29 15:37
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JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N
132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. A 290317Z ANIMATED
MULTISPECTUAL SATELLEITE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED, PERSISTING
CONVECTION WITH A POORLY ORGNIZED LLC. A 290109Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A PATCH OF 15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
AREA. ENVIROMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C). GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK GENEREALLY
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW. 
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