簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2022-10-12 15:52
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JTWC 0730Z發布TCFA
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED 15.8N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WELL HIDDEN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
BUILDING CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THIS LLC WAS REVEALED EARLIER IN A
SCATTEROMETRY BULLSEYE THAT SHOWED ALONG THE NORTH, EAST, AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS OF 99W, THERE LIES WINDS FIELDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH EMBEDDED
25 KNOT WINDS. A 120349Z AMSR 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS LENT A
HAND WITH REVEALING THE LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF 99W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 99W IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM BEING
WITHIN A BUBBLE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) THAT IS SURROUND
BY A BARRIER OF 40-50KTS OF SHEAR TO THE NORTH. OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM
IS FAIR TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SMALL
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL AND THE SSTS IN THE
AREA WARM (29-30C) TO AID IN THE FUELING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED BY THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THUS CAUSING IT TO
RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALMOST COMPLETING A LOOP BY TAU 36, AND
THEN HIGH TAIL IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THAT BARRIER RIDGE SLIGHTLY
WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AS THE
TUTT CELL MOVES TO A POSITION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH. 
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