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c789654|2011-9-20 20:52
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WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 29.4N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 34.9N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 39.9N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 44.9N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 30.0N 133.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 100 NM
DIAMETER SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 19 NM ROUND EYE. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 18W HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASING EYE DIAMETER, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED WELL
ORGANIZED IN A 200444Z AMSR-E IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON EYE AND RADAR FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO
115 KNOTS. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 12. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 24 AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST REMAINS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 18W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24 THEN
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z,
210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
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