king111807

JTWC降格C1

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 17.2S 77.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 17.2S 76.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 17.2S 74.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 17.1S 73.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.7S 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 19.5S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 21.5S 63.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 77.5E.
13JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.
//
NNNN

king111807

MFR降格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 140642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 77.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE CONFIGURATION ON
INFRARED IMAGERY WITH RELATIVELY WARM PEAKS. HOWEVER, THE EYE IS NOW
MORE CLEARLY VISIBLE, AS CONFIRMED BY THE F16 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM
0130 AT 85 GHZ. THE SYSTEM THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE IN A PHASE OF
REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE 0023Z SAR AND 0324Z ASCAT PASSES ESTIMATE
WINDS OF AROUND 55 KT. DUDZAI HAS THEREFORE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SINCE 00 UTC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES REMAIN
CLOSE TO 4.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT REINTENSIFICATION, DUZAI
REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
REESTIMATED AT 60KT.

REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY, DUDZAI HAS BEGUN ITS GRADUAL ACCELERATION
WESTWARD IN RELATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, DUE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS SWELLING
TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. SPREAD
AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS DECREASED BUT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT LONGER
RANGE. IN THIS UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR TRAJECTORY FORECAST FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGES, NOTABLY AI.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARMER
SURFACE WATERS AS IT ACCELERATES. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REINTENSIFY AND
RETURN TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ITS EXTENT WILL DEPEND IN PARTICULAR ON THE
SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

king111807

MFR升格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 141909 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTRE OF THE STORM
HAS REMAINED THE SAME, WITH THE CENTRE MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS
THE CENTRE, ACCORDING TO DATA FROM SENTINEL1A AT 1323UTC AND METOP-3
AT 1636UTC. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, AN EYE SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING.
IN THIS CONTEXT, A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A CDO OF 4.5 CAN BE MADE,
ALLOWING DUDZAI TO RETURN TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WITH AVERAGE
WINDS OF 65KT. THIS ANALYSIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE OTHER SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, BUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DUDZAI TO
REINTENSIFY, WHICH SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING IN THE LATEST DATA,
VALIDATED BY THE LATEST RCM3 DATA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE
EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WEST. THE RSMC
FORECAST OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DISPERSION IS DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, INDICATING
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR RODRIGUES BY SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO A MORE
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
CAUSE IT TO REACT MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT CONTINUED
WEAKENING REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH
THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT
PASSES CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

king111807

JTWC升格C2

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 74.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 74.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 16.9S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 16.8S 71.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.1S 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 17.8S 69.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 19.7S 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 21.4S 63.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 24.4S 58.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 73.9E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
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